Microsoft's announcement yesterday about delaying the release of the consumer version of Windows Vista until January, 2007 wasn't unexpected, at least for me. Not because I had any inside information (I didn't), but because a 2006 release date didn't fit the 12 year Web 2.0 cycle which I wrote about last November.
Start Date: The starting point of the current Web 2.0 cycle must be the starting point of the Internet boom itself - the dramatic and hugely successful IPO of Netscape Communications on August 10, 1995.
1st Quarter-Point: 3 years later, on September 7, 1998, Google, Inc. was incorporated. This event represents a quarter-point in the cycle, and considering Google's subsequent role in developing innovative web-based applications like G-mail, Desktop, Google Maps, etc., as well as its apparent interest in challenging Microsoft, it's well-suited to the quarter-point role of agitator.
Opposition-Point: The dot.com crash of 2000 and 2001 marked the opposition point of this 12 year cycle. There's no question that this was a benchmark event for the Internet era. It's effect was devastating and far-reaching, forcing the technology companies that survived to re-examine their Internet strategies.
2nd Quarter-Point: August 19, 2004 - 9 years and 9 days after the Netscape IPO, and six years after its own incorporation, Google went public. Google's power and influence had continued to grow, and its IPO was very successful. Some speculate that a recent partnership with Sun may lead to the creation of Google Office, a true Web 2.0 product that would be aimed directly at stealing marketshare from the industry workhorse Microsoft Office. Whether Google Office becomes a reality or not, Google's on-going and diverse forays into web-based applications has positioned it as a key player in the Web 2.0 arena. Note that both its incorporation as well as its IPO dates are placed squarely in challenge to the start and opposition points of this cycle.
Conjunction Point: January, 2007 - Whether Microsoft's Windows Vista was released at the end of 2006 or in early 2007, 2007 is the appropriate year to mark it's influence. It marks the time that the concept of the "Web as Platform" moves into a new phase, a seamless experience which bridges online applications with desktop ones.
Jeff, thanks for this thought-provoking piece. That's a very interesting way to look at the Web 2.0 "cycle." I like your thinking!
Posted by: Easton Ellsworth | March 22, 2006 3:25 PM | Permalink to Comment